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Welcome to Shankar Manjunath's (Shankar B M) Analytical Expressions page !!!

This site is an expression of my thoughts and analysis on various interesting issues and trends.(Note: These are my personal views only).


Forthcoming Analytical Thoughts


Future of Indian Outsourcing Industry (Jan 2011)


There has been a lot of talk about the future of India's Outsourcing Industry. Skeptics have pointed to many instances where companies have moved to alternate destinations such as Philippines, Latin America, China and even US. Many analysts have already started to point out that the Indian Outsourcing success is soon coming to an end. The basis of predicting the doom has been that India is slowly becoming cost ineffective both for IT & BPO services.The article tries evaluate the different factors that could contribute to this. Will these factors really impact the Indian Outsourcing industry ???

>> Click here to read more  


Future of US Outsourcing / Offshoring Market


For last few months I have been analyzing different data points and the recent trends to find out the maximum cap for the American Outsourcing / Offshoring market. When will the companies like Infosys, IBM, TCS, etc. hit the ceiling in their larger IT/BPO Services market. Also, the study also focusses on what are the major areas that could see further growth before it reaches a saturation point. The analysis also focuses on the impact on the labor market in US and the impending protectionism that could restrict Outsourcing. From my inferences, the saturation point is not decades away but few years away.

Planning to roll this article by this year end

Working Population and the Impact of Aging for the Top economies


Right fromt the well acclaimed Goldman Sach's BRIC report to various independent researchers have been talking of India's advantage of the working class populations as India leaps forward into the developed league. However, none of the major researches do not talk of when the inflexion point happens (similarly when it starts hurting other major economies). Hence, this study will try to analyze the projected demographic trends of the major economies and see how aging will impact the overall growth and when the potential impact could occur (if the current trend continues).

Planning to roll this article by this year end


Economic Growth & Tata's Singur Row - An indepth analysis


The entire nation is up in arms against Mamata Bannerjee. Only a handful of people - the villagers, Trinamool congress and the anti capitalists would be celebrating the exit of Tatas from Singur. I wanted to determine the ground reality albeit sitting 6000 miles away and find out answers to some of my questions "How can we have a balanced economic growth in a capitalist environment", "Did the people of Singur really lose out?", "What is the solution for such problems", "Will see more such protests hindering economic development" ?

Before I go find the answers to these questions, let me bring about some of the statistics. We have 160 million hectares of arable land and 800 million people dependend on such land for a living, i.e. 0.2 hectare per person (or 0.5 acres). This number looks stunning. Let me give one more statistics about my village. The total arable land in my village should be about 250 acres supporting 100 families (about 500 people) which is similar to our national average. But the reality bites when the one comes to know that the land is owned by about 20 families. The rest 80 families (400 people) work as day labourers, business men,teachers, barbers, etc. Suppose a company sets up a factory in these 200 acres of land and compensate the 20 families which sold land. The big question is "what will happen to the 80 families". Most of them will become jobless now. The 20 families which received compensation will end up wasting the money without proper guidance. The new factory would provide employment to a few of the villagers. They need skilled labor and will import from neighbouring cities. What will happen to these 400 people. Some of them who have resources or guidance will end up in starting small businesses supporting the new township that comes around the factory. The remaining migrate to nearby cities or villages. But a few of them might pickup arms under the guise of some movement (E.g. Naxals, etc).
>> Complete article to be Published soon  
.


Arranged Marriages - Recipes for Successul Partner Hunt


Being in the arranged marriage market is a pain for both guys and gals. Having undergone the process of selection with multiple failures have given me good experience about "To Do's" "Do Not's" for a successful partner search. I will bring out all the crazy tips that friends and relatives give(E.g. How to evaluate the girl's family?).

Religion or Language - Which is the bigger threat to National Integration ?


The birth of Bangladesh was purely driven by "language and development" differences between east and west Pakistan. Regionalism in India is on the rise with unity is more demonstrated based on language in many parts of India. This could be the opposition in Bengal and Tamil Nadu in 60's against imposing Hindi, the Cauvery dispute turning out anti-lingual or the recent turmoil in Maharashtra. In this article, I will dvelve into the parallels between Bangladesh issue and the current challenges faced in India on many factors - politics, water, GDP growth, jobs creation, literacy, population density and linguistic problems. The article will try project different scenairos that might develop in future when regional disparity increases along with increasing population.


What if Gandhi Had not happened to India ?


I always wondered what if Gandhiji had not been born in India or had not returned from South Africa? I digged out in deep about the freedom movements of different countries, USA to south east Asia. Also, the different personalities present in India during Gandhi's time like Nehru, Subhash Chandra Bose, Dadabhai, Sardar Patel, etc. What differently would have these people done if Gandhi were not be in India? Would we still have got indpendence in 1947 as promised by the British for sacrificing 1 million Indian soldiers in the winterlands of Europe and rough terrains of Africa? Or do we had to wait more till the UN influence growth in the 50's or the bloody nationalist movements similar to other countries against colonizations like in the 60s (Vietnam) or an economic growth influenced revolution like in the 90s (Hongkong)

Salary Hikes and the Impact on Indian Outsourcing Industry


Come April, there would be two sets of people. One set happy with the pay hikes, and another set disgruntled and eager to look for another job. Well, the latter outnumbering the former. This "desire for more" has been the basis of astrnomical figures for most professionals (mainly IT) in India. As per many researchers and industry reports, India is fast losing as an attractive offshoring destination. I will dvelve on this topic in my other articles in http://stradlingsourcing.com/publications.php and forthcoming articles. However, wage inflation in India is exaggerated. Most people don't understand the difference between the increase in salaries and wage inflation. Wage inflation refers to how much your average salary has changed, assuming the average experience of your employees stays constant. This article talks about how salaries have changed for different categories of people in different cities and analyzes if Indians are "Over Paid".


  • When to Outsource? What to Outsource?
  • There has been a lot of talk about what to outsource, when to outsource. There has been a lot of research around this and the perspectives have been quite varying from strategy consulting firms like Mckinsey, BCG to business consulting firms such as IBM, Deloitte and offshore IT vendor firms like Infoysys, Wipro, Cognizant. They have tried to define this within their horizon. The article makes an attempt to define the horizon purely from a client organization perspective, what the CIO's need to think before making a decision. Also, the article tries to attempt to give an empirical formula that could work at most of the scenarios. The crux of this article is that "CIO's - Data can be presented in a convenient way, but beware of the hidden traps when you interpret the data".
    >> Article to be Published soon  

  • Retiring Dilemma - How much money is sufficient?
  • If you are retiring now or planning to retire in the next X years, then this article is made for you. The articles tries to analyze the different income levels, type of job security, the spending patterns , inflation rate, projected spending to arrive at how much minimum money would be sufficient to retire and lead a comfortable living as planned.

    >> click here to view the initial article outline and base version of calculator  
     

  • "ILU ILU" - Who Calls the Shot...The 'Wicked' Brain or the 'Hapless' Heart
  • For many years I have been analyzing the genesis of the Love - relationship (guy & a gal only) and wondered what are the possible thoughts that go on and how decisions are made. Although there is no generic rule but there is definitely a pattern among different sets of people (not a finite set). This lengthy article starts of narrating the different events around me -  real life incidents around me including all my missed buses. The article also analyzes the situations surrounding an "YES" and also the factors influencing different age group of people & the gender. The first chapter of the article would be published on 26th Jan 2006.

    >> click here to view the initial outline

  • You can't win over Terror !!! Beat Terrorism ...
  • The civilized world's fight against Terror has taken new dimensions in the last decade. The article tries to illustrate the fact that no body can win the war on Terror. You need to aim at eliminating the concept of terrorism from the minds of the disillusioned people.

  • Fast Forward - Indian pros in US in 2030...
  • This article would try to portray the picture of Desis (or the Indian working pros) working outside India, mainly in the current developed economies like US & UK. The confusion that would be set in their minds and the financial aspects that would be prevalent (predicted) has been brought out in a lighter way.


    Elections in India and its impact on the GDP

    Ever wondered the importance of elections in India other than choosing your representative?

    This article analyzes the impact of elections to the GDP growth. The article estimates the amount spent on the elections by the candidates, parties and election commission. This turns out to be a whopping $8.68 billion (the highest in the world) for the current 2004 elections. This would inturn contribute for a 2% growth in the GDP. If the current trend in the services and manufacturing sectors continue and a decent growth in agriculture happens (about 3-4%), then the 2003-2004 GDP growth will touch 8% and 2004-2005 GDP growth would cross 9%. This is due to the trickling down of the election expenditure to the masses (after discounting the imports).

    So Hail Elections ! Wish they were held every year :-)

    >>click here to view the full article


    Forthcoming Research & Analytics Writings (RAW)

     

    Outsourcing - How to Lobby?

    Ever wondered how many jobs get created for every 1000 jobs lost in US

     Well the number is 1600 !!!!

    The hue and cry over outsourcing has been right in its way, but it is right for the uninformed people who are seeing the plight of the people losing jobs. There is not much research done on the positive impacts of the outsourcing. The latest Mckinsey survey which comments on 12% additional benefits to US does not reflect the right outcome of outsourcing or cannot pacify the angry people.

    My analysis deals into the benefits that would be accrued to US & its companies by BPO, 3rd party IT outsourcing (Infosys, Wipro) and captive IT centers (HP, GE, IBM).

    A simple analysis of the BPO business for a 1000 person work outsourcing indicates the creation of 1600 jobs (pessimistic). The analysis is based on the savings, the capital spending pattern of Indian outsourcing outfits for starting a BPO, investment for the past decade & current data,  research on the multiplier of the investment  per $100 million investment in Ohio & Texas states.


    Location Advantage

    Where to setup the development/operational centre

    The most bugging question to software & BPO companies when setting up their new operations or expanding their operations is to "where to locate their new premises in a particular city". The answer is not simple and involves lot of analysis.

    Most  companies forget the people factor while making the decision. What are the people factors to be considered? How will it help. What are the cost benefits (also the tradeoffs) from it. A preliminary research & analysis of 2 top IT companies in India show that for an employee strength of 10,000, these companies together can save up to 1,000 crores if they change their existing operation locations.

    China - Who should worry?

    The pegging of Remnibi to dollar has created large hue and cry by the Americans. But is it only the Americans being impacted. A detailed analysis show that EU would be a far bigger loser than the Americans. Why are they quiet.

    "When will the Chinese let loose their control over their currency", "What will be the impact on India, How much benefit India will have it", "How competitive will the Indian goods be in the world market", "Will India get a  competitive advantage against China"," How to the costs differences between India & China change at different levels of Yuan" .

    >>> articles coming soon >>>


    Thinking Cap - Predicting the Future

    Wondering whether this has any relationship to Astrology. Whew! you would be disappointed.

    Predicting Future

    This book is a collection of discreet articles written by me right from April, 2000. The articles present various situations of the past and the present, analyses the situation and tries to predict the future. The "future prediction" according to me is an art which requires scientific inputs and only then the prediction will be near accurate terms with the future. The articles are more India centric and discusses right from the downturn in the economy to the next predicted recession in 2010.

    >>click here to download


    Psycho Analysis
    Amused up by the topic. Relax until you read the full book.

    The book describes the psychological states of different age group people, their relationship with the others, the application of such knowledge for marketing the goods. The book also discusses about the sensitive human relationships, buying tendencies. The book mainly concentrates on the India and some insights from Europe.

    Beware, this book contains some explicit material which you might not be willing to read or accept.

    >>Sorry...Book currently Unavailable


    Campus Guide
    This book was my second book to be published in May 2000.

    Campus Guide

    The cover page one of India's first books on   IT recruitments

    I along with three of my friends authored this book. This book helped thousands of students in their preparations for IT companies interviews.

    The 80 page book contains information on how to prepare for aptitude & technical tests with sample tests, GD's and interviews. The book was priced at Rs.25/- to prevent students from photocopying the book and also entice them to spend 25 bucks & buy the book`. The ROI was over 200%.

    This book was sold to 1200 students through  network marketing and road shows in various colleges in Bangalore. This book made inroads across all engineering colleges in Bangalore, Mysore, Regional Engineering colleges of Surathkal, Trichi, Warrangal, & Kurukshetra, IIT Madras and other colleges in and around Karnataka. This book got me recognition from over 5000 students in and around Bangalore.

     

    For details mail to: shankar@analyticalthoughts.com


    Spoorthi
    This book was my first book to be published at the age of 10 years.

    Spoorthi Cover Page

    The book was a collection of 14 of my best poems written during 1988-99 in Kannada covering beauty of the nature, spirituality and ideal life.  The poems were a reflection of my disciplined, moral, and spiritual upbringing by my father filled with a great respect to nature. Although, I laugh at those poems today, but they used to give me great deal of satisfaction and had motivated me to take up writing as my career.

    The 40 odd page book priced at Rs.2/- had a collection of poems written by me, my father and his literary club members. I started off my marketing career with this book :-) (actually I made some 60 odd Rupees during that time selling it to my teachers and family friends).

    Spoorthi Scanned Page 1
    Spoorthi Scanned Page 2









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